A surge in electronic permits for goods movement signals robust year-end dispatches, improved compliance, and sustained factory activity—setting the stage for another bumper GST haul.
India's goods movement hit a new high in March, as businesses rushed to dispatch inventories before the financial year closed.
The number of electronic permits—or e-way bills—used to ship goods within and across states surged to a record 124.5 million, government data showed, underscoring a spike in factory activity and economic momentum.
The sharp rise—20% higher than March last year and 11.5% more than February—points to robust year-end clearance from warehouses and factories, often a prelude to higher tax receipts.
A similar surge in March last year preceded a record ₹2.1 trillion in goods and service tax (GST) collection in April 2024. Since GST revenues reflect the previous month's sales, the latest e-way bill data suggests the government may be looking at another bumper tax haul this month.
The data, released by GSTN, the IT backbone of the indirect tax regime, comes amid broader signs of industrial strength. India's manufacturing PMI for March, released by S&P Global, climbed to 58.1—its highest in eight months—indicating an overall expansion in factory output.
Manufacturing gross value added at constant 2011-12 prices is estimated to have grown 4.3% in FY25, according to the second advance estimates from the Ministry of Statistics.
E-way bill generation has maintained an upward trajectory for 25 months, with March 2025 setting a new benchmark, said Rajat Mohan, senior partner at AMRG & Associates.
"Both intra-state and inter-state movement have contributed to this growth, with intra-state e-way bills forming the bulk of the total," said Mohan.
"A noticeable rise in inter-state bills from September 2024 onwards suggests improved logistics activity. Since e-way bills are a leading indicator of goods movement and supply chain activity, the trend also suggests macroeconomic stability, with increased business-to-business transactions indicating stronger consumption and production cycles," he said.
The rise also reflects improved compliance and policy tightening, according to experts.
The electronic permits, which are mandatory for tracking the movement of goods across India, serve as a real-time barometer of economic activity, said Saurabh Agarwal, tax partner at EY.
A surge in e-way bill generation directly reflects increased goods movement and signals healthy domestic trade, Agarwal said, adding that rising e-way bill numbers suggested stronger demand and supply dynamics across sectors.
Agarwal attributed part of the spike to a rule change that took effect in January 2025. Under new norms, transporters can't generate e-way bills using invoices older than 180 days. Plus, each e-way bill now has a firm validity cap of 360 days, limiting the scope for indefinite extensions and forcing faster goods movement.
"The increase in numbers not only highlights growing economic momentum but also reflects a system evolving towards greater transparency, compliance, and efficiency. These numbers also reflect that Indian economy is not getting effected by the global headwinds," said Agarwal.
Mohan of AMRG & Associates said businesses must ensure timely and accurate e-way bill generation, given the rising scrutiny around documentation and compliance under GST law.